Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 10.277221 11.792050 13.421684 15.301389 17.405796 19.685143 22.336701
2025-11-16 7.990559 10.031810 12.398052 15.328211 18.842480 22.904218 27.935166
2025-11-23 6.711795 8.938027 11.646688 15.156021 19.550285 24.836229 31.637447
2025-11-30 5.850187 8.215243 11.219929 15.271129 20.537863 27.094997 35.809626
2025-12-07 5.316822 7.814022 11.105576 15.695128 21.851243 29.736237 40.496973
2025-12-14 4.661337 7.161959 10.577820 15.496752 22.293758 31.235557 43.744649
2025-12-21 3.971420 6.376674 9.779810 14.836927 22.028476 31.734802 45.637188
2025-12-28 3.699392 6.164657 9.757006 15.236567 23.215452 34.212420 50.267875
2026-01-04 3.426870 5.919443 9.656023 15.499484 24.201201 36.433293 54.614991
2026-01-11 3.094296 5.544170 9.323710 15.384345 24.613676 37.843634 57.859230
2026-01-18 2.794601 5.189706 8.989431 15.231671 24.943705 39.127462 60.948644
2026-01-25 2.562553 4.923135 8.768087 15.229407 25.484952 40.722838 64.530075
2026-02-01 2.371244 4.712396 8.626641 15.352819 26.239255 42.688035 68.773806
2026-02-08 2.165273 4.455151 8.387157 15.298438 26.706669 44.235875 72.452210
2026-02-15 1.967249 4.190406 8.110211 15.155316 27.010561 45.527050 75.766039
2026-02-22 1.829475 4.023833 7.988210 15.260042 27.712777 47.452190 80.109963
2026-03-01 1.752639 3.966682 8.054064 15.687579 28.962085 50.277897 85.945175
2026-03-08 1.593795 3.730164 7.774904 15.487938 29.140493 51.391099 89.107627
2026-03-15 1.391578 3.382561 7.260330 14.828904 28.491422 51.125580 90.041474
2026-03-22 1.338148 3.342217 7.325147 15.228186 29.693381 53.934104 96.028565
2026-03-29 1.272403 3.268341 7.318344 15.491040 30.662058 56.383306 101.499650
2026-04-05 1.170780 3.103987 7.119283 15.375934 30.944773 57.682956 105.105877
2026-04-12 1.074329 2.940653 6.908846 15.223340 31.146890 58.844882 108.509455